The transfer of reserves by Russia can only stabilize the front line closer to winter.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a partial mobilization demonstrates Russia’s difficult position on the battlefield in Ukraine.
This is stated in the publication The Wall Street Journal.
Western analysts doubt that bringing so many reserves into combat will stop the UAF counteroffensive or affect combat in the near future.
According to Air Marshal Edward Stringer of the British Air Force, “this is the last throw of a stun grenade”: “This indicates weakness.”
Today, the Russian armed forces are not capable of accepting, training and deploying hundreds of thousands of recruits. Forcibly mobilized soldiers, although they help Russia to strengthen the defense, are unlikely to become motivated fighters.
Analysts also doubt that the illegal “accession” of the occupied territories to the Russian Federation will somehow affect Ukraine’s choice of targets for strikes, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine have repeatedly attacked Russian bases in the annexed Crimea. In addition, fire is being waged in the border regions of Russia.
At the same time, Putin’s latest nuclear threat does not indicate any change in Russian nuclear policy, but was aimed at trying to reduce Western support for Ukraine.
American analysts point out that it would be a mistake to allow Russia to use nuclear deterrence tactics to appropriate the captured territories, because this will affect the European security order and create a precedent.
According to Eugene Finkel, a professor at the Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, the Kremlin is “in despair” because of the military defeats.
“They (the Russians – UNIAN) are determined to do something, but they don’t understand what exactly they are doing and how to do it,” Finkel said.
Former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Zagorodniuk, in turn, called mobilization in the Russian Federation a “losing option” for Putin.
The Russian army is exhausted, and with the new draft the situation will not change significantly.
The publication argues that the transfer of reserves by Russia can only stabilize the front line closer to winter, when offensive operations are more difficult to carry out.
Putin announced partial mobilization in Russia
On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the start of partial mobilization in the country. According to the Russian leadership, first of all, citizens with combat experience of up to 300,000 people will be involved in the war against Ukraine.
Putin’s statement is consistent with the analysis of many Western experts that Russia is in need of human resources to continue the war, and Putin himself does not abandon the original intention to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine. In parallel, the leader of the Wagner PMC is recruiting prisoners.
At the same time, in Moscow – against the background of the first successes of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region – they announced the urgent holding of “referendums” in the occupied regions in the east and south of Ukraine. A number of Western countries have already stated that they do not recognize the results of their implementation. The United States separately noted that Russia “will pay for this.”
Also in Russia, on the eve of Putin’s speech, the penalties for surrender and desertion were significantly toughened.
In Kyiv, the beginning of mobilization in the Russian Federation was called Putin’s plan for the disposal of Russians. Zelensky stressed that it is Ukraine that currently holds the initiative at the forefront.
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already eliminated about 55,110 invaders and thousands of enemy equipment.