A monthly mobilization resource of 20,000 is effective for Russians only in terms of compensating for irretrievable losses.
The command of the Russian occupation troops, at the current level of mobilization, cannot compensate for losses in the combat zone. This opinion was expressed by the military-political observer Alexander Kovalenko.
As an expert wrote in Telegram, this was confirmed by the representative of the press service of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Andrei Yusov, noting that the Russian Federation mobilizes up to 20 thousand people a month.
“In principle, the data that I have been waiting for. This information allows us to fully assess the capabilities of the Russian occupation forces to restore the combat capability of their units, taking into account both daily and monthly losses. I have repeatedly emphasized that this indicator of monthly compensation of the ROV ( Russian occupying troops – ed.) is 50 thousand,” he explained.
According to Kovalenko, this number includes “both the annihilated, wounded, captured, and rotational compensation” of the Russian occupation forces. A monthly mobilization resource of 20,000 is effective for Russians only in terms of compensating for irretrievable losses.
“Thus, if another mobilization is not announced in Russia in the near future, they will sag by 30-40 thousand personnel every month. But the most interesting thing is that if they start building up the mobilization potential again, the level of losses from it will also grow,” the observer emphasized.
Kovalenko explained that this was due to the fact that with the mobilization resources necessary to compensate for the troops, their quality is lost. In addition, the possibilities for their provision and standard equipment are being reduced daily.
“And if tomorrow 50-100 thousand people start to mobilize in the Russian Federation, then it will be … golі-bosi! In fact, 20 thousand is the resource that the ROV can more or less provide per month. More – the MTO crisis (financially -technical support – ed.) and another increase in losses, which will need to be compensated for by even greater mobilization. This is such an ouroboros of the human resource for the ROV. This is a stroke of the entire system,” Kovalenko summed up.
Mobilization in Russia
On September 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the so-called partial mobilization in Russia, the purpose of which was called the conscription of 300 thousand people. A month later, the draft was allegedly canceled, but the mobilization activities did not stop.
Recently, in the Voronezh region, they officially announced the start of serving subpoenas. This will be done ostensibly in order to update accounting data.
Later, human rights activist Pavel Chikov said that they began to actively distribute summonses in 35 regions of the Russian Federation. At the same time, according to him, most of the questions are on the agendas that are called for military training, because the corresponding presidential decree has not been published.
In addition, summonses began to arrive even for students. So, students of the Novosibirsk State Technical University saw the agendas right in their personal account on the university website.