Putin considers it dangerous for the stability of his power to send young conscripts to war.
The spring conscription announced in Russia from April 1 may prevent the Kremlin from preparing replacements mobilized for the war against Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War notes in a morning summary.
According to analysts, Putin considers it dangerous for the stability of his power to send young conscripts to war – and therefore he relied on the mobilization of reservists and the recruitment of volunteers.
Therefore, conscripts, most likely, will not go to war, but they still need to be trained somewhere. “Russia’s training capacity is limited, and the fact that they will be occupied by conscripts who will not fight in Ukraine in 2023, deprives the Kremlin of the opportunity to train reservists and volunteers who will fight,” the ISW summary says.
Analysts believe that Russia may try to recruit replacements for units in Ukraine, forcing or persuading to sign a contract some of the soldiers who are completing their military service and are already somewhat prepared to fight.
“But how successful this venture can be is far from clear,” the Institute for the Study of War notes in a report.
Putin signed a decree on spring conscription – what is known
On March 30, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a decree on spring conscription into the army.
Putin’s decree notes that as part of the spring conscription to the army throughout Russia, military commissars must recruit at least 147,000 Russians.