Russia’s war against Ukraine may reach a dead end – WP with reference to “leaked” US documents
In addition to predicting an indefinite conflict, the recently released document also predicts how Zelensky and Putin will respond to challenges on the battlefield.
2023 will end with both sides making only “minor” military territorial gains due to “insufficient numbers of troops and supplies for effective operations,” WP writes, citing “leaked” Pentagon data.
Such a stalemate, with neither side achieving a decisive advantage, is described in the document as “the most likely scenario.”
At the same time, both sides will refuse to negotiate an end to the war.
The forecast concludes that even if Ukraine wins back “significant” territories and inflicts “unacceptable losses on Russian forces,” which US intelligence says is unlikely, the country’s gains will not lead to peace talks. “Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 under all scenarios considered,” the document says.
In addition to predicting an indefinite conflict, the recently released document also predicts how Ukrainian and Russian military leaders will respond to challenges on the battlefield. For the Ukrainian side, according to American analysts, the ongoing war of attrition will lead to domestic disillusionment and “criticism” of the way the war is being conducted, “increasing the likelihood of a leadership change.”
At the same time, Ukraine is likely to step up strikes against Russia itself, a dynamic that has alarmed some US officials who fear such strikes could force Putin to escalate the conflict or give China an excuse to start supplying ammunition to the Russian army.
For the Russian side, the stalemate will force Moscow to use “degraded reserves due to reduced combat power.” The Kremlin may also “accelerate” efforts to “integrate” the occupied territories into Russia.
In the event that Russia inflicts a significant blow on Ukraine and seizes new territories, Moscow will most likely try to change the power of Ukraine. And if Ukraine gains a decisive advantage, Kyiv is likely to “carry out more risky offensive operations to obtain additional benefits.”
In response, Russia can be expected to “intensify unconventional attacks on Ukraine” although, importantly, “nuclear use remains unlikely.” US officials predict that the Kremlin, instead of surrendering, would prefer to announce a “new national mobilization” to continue the fighting.
WP notes that a recently released U.S. document acknowledges that the stalemate the Pentagon describes as the most likely scenario in 2023 may not continue if there are “significant improvements in Ukraine’s or Russia’s military capabilities.”
Moreover, such analyzes are fluid, and leaked materials may not contain the nuances that the United States gathered in the days following their release.
Secret Pentagon documents “leaked” to the network – what is known
NYT April 7, citing sources in the Pentagon, reported a large-scale leak of data on the counter-offensive of Ukraine. Documents posted on Telegram and Twitter contained data on the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and distorted US estimates of Ukrainian and Russian losses.
In addition, the documents also contained false information about Britain, allegedly about the readiness of Egypt, one of the US allies, to transfer up to 40,000 missiles to the Russian Federation and secret assistance to the Ukrainian army from pro-Russian Serbia.
However, as Bellingcat learned, US Department of Defense classified materials were first posted on Discort no later than January 2023. Investigators have not been able to identify who did this at this time.
Politico wrote that the leak led to a crisis in US relations with allies, and it is not yet clear how Washington will correct the situation, which many already call one of the biggest failures of American intelligence since the publication of classified documents on the WikiLeaks website. And it may take months to investigate the leak of documents in the United States, CNN noted in turn.